Thanks Ed. Even before getting half way through the first link some facts become clear. Rainfall amounts will influence the range of the spawn and the smaller bulls will show first.
Originally Posted by Bulak
According to Bulak (1988), if a striped bass spawned at 70 degrees F in a low rainfall year, approximately 36 miles of flowing water is necessary for the eggs to hatch. But if a striper spawned at the same temperature during a high rainfall period, about 72 miles of flowing water from the spawning area is required
One can perhaps interpolate from this data and apply it to a northern system like the hudson. The huge amount of rainfall can predict a longer and wider spawning area effectively doubling in size of range
The fish caught in last weekends Hudson tournament were 20 pound early arriving bulls.